"Demotorization"?!?! Could it Happen Here?

TheStar.com | Wheels | Japan's cars popular abroad, spurned at home

Japan's younger generation is turning away from car ownership. The automotive industry calls it `kuruma banare", roughly translated as "demotorization".

The Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association predicts auto sales in Japan will fall to 4.86 million in 2009 – the first time below five million in more than three decades. This year, sales are projected at 5.11 million, the worst since 1980.

Could this ever happen in North America? Well, we can dream, can't we?

From globeandmail.com: Prime ministers in exile

Prime ministers in exile

Yes, on this issue, we could learn from the Americans.

Economic Armageddon - Or Re-Birth?

Many people must view my stated aim to "promote a Post-Carbon World, where we are learning to consume less, while enjoying life more" as akin to promoting economic Armageddon. For those who believe that humanity should forever expect to produce and consume more it must seem heretical to propose that we need to consider ways to enjoy life by consuming less. It can seem particularly galling to people who are becoming unemployed during this economic slowdown.

The history of my anti-consumerist slant goes back decades. I first started to shy away from the "buy-buy-buy" mentality of Christmas during the early seventies as I finished university. A self-described "hippie" at the time, I turned to making gifts rather than buying them. At the same time I started my still held practice of shopping at thrift stores such as the Salvation Army for clothes and other items whenever possible. I took on the "Reduce, Re-Use, Recycle" mantra long before it was embraced by the corporate world.

I expect I was viewed as eccentric by many of my friends and family, but, the concept worked for me. It wasn't until much later, just over the past few years, that I began to fully grasp the extent to which humanity's promotion of a collectively wasteful lifestyle of over consumption was destroying our planet. I realized that we were, quite literally, consuming ourselves. Much more than fouling our nest, we were eating it whole, and burning the refuse without a thought to cleaning up after ourselves. Ever increasing growth in world wide consumption levels of goods and energy was not a sustainable option. In the words of Kenneth Boulding: Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist.

I saw the world as being on a drunken binge of over consumption fueled by the promotion of greed. Fueled by the greed of those who already owned and consumed far in excess of their fair share and told us that we too could dream of unending riches. The ultimate Ponzi scheme. As the American economy lurched toward recession a couple of years ago, George W. Bush urged Americans to go shopping.




Like sheep being herded to slaughter, Americans took the advice of their President, borrowed against their homes, and went ever deeper into debt.

This never was a situation that we could simply shop our way out of. It was the encouragement of irresponsible spending and taking of debt that exacerbated an already shaky world economy. As Dan Gardner at the Ottawa Citizen recently pointed out, "this is going to hurt and hurt some more." We aren't in Kansas anymore, and closing our eyes, clicking our heels together and wishing we were elsewhere will not get us out of this mess.

For my part, for several years now, I have endeavoured to rein in my over consumptive ways and expectations, in preparation for what I saw as the ultimate crash. I felt that it would be a necessary life lesson to be "learning to consume less, while enjoying life more. " (I guess I wanted to be ahead of the curve on at least one thing.) Seriously, though, believing in ever increasing material riches and consumption simply seemed such an empty pursuit. I have sought to replace it with an appreciation of the more intangible yet just as real riches that I am surrounded by. These include family, friends, and, fortunately, good health. I live in a part of the planet that is peaceful, where citizens enjoy freedom of conscience. Of course, there is always room for improvement, but, when I look around the world, I am very grateful for where I happen to live.

Unfortunately, it appears that restructuring is being forced upon us. It is very painful for so many people to have their dreams of undulating wealth into retirement smashed on the rocks of this current economic shipwreck. People have seen retirement investments vanish, and those dreams of unending travel and leisure vanish with them. What to do?

It may seem ephemeral, and of little solace during these very difficult times, but, I urge everyone to consider the possibility that forever pursuing material consumption really is a trap. It traps us not only financially, but spiritually. Humans, apparently, are the only creatures on the planet to excessively consume beyond their need. We readily allow ourselves to be manipulated into having our whimsical desires transformed into wants and then into needs. We need to step back, and take a breath, and appreciate.

Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays, to all. In the words of my good friend Paul, received in email earlier today,

Hug everyone who will let you!

The Speed of Social Media - Twitter, Blogs, etc.

Nora Young Interviews Ethan Zuckerman on Xenophiles and Cultural Bridge Figures

It was only a few days ago that I decided to sign up for "Twitter", primarily so I could learn more about it. Didn't really know why people would want to know what I was doing "right now", but I dove in. I then learned that I could "follow" others. This lead me to receiving twitter feeds from people such as Nora Young, host of the CBC Radio One show Spark, and Steve Paikin at "The Agenda" on TVO.

The above link, which I received only an hour or so ago, (via Twitter), takes you to an interview Nora did with Ethan Zuckerman that will air on January 7. Well worth listening to. He speaks very well about the transformative age we live in and the opportunities that exist for building cross cultural bridges. Have a listen.

For the time being, Twitter, (and Spark!) are providing food for thought.

The Crush of the Automobile

My decision to give up car ownership several years ago has required me to turn to other forms of transportation. For local travel I initially turned to cycling and walking, while carrying a strip of bus tickets in my wallet as backup. Since June, for several reasons, I have been using the local bus system more (known as OCTranspo here in Ottawa) , so I have purchased a bus pass, in conjunction with membership in a car sharing organization, vrtucar. So far so good, until, a week ago, within hours of the city being hit by its first major snowstorm, and in the midst of the already increased traffic generated by the holiday season, the bus drivers went on strike.

I now recognize the extent to which I had become dependent on OCTranspo for my sense of freedom. Over this past six months I have enjoyed the hop on hop off freedom that a bus pass provides. Now, my world feels a little bit smaller.

So much of this sense of a "smaller" world though, can be attributed to the expansive landscape that I have come to assume to be my rightful place on the planet. Back at the turn of the last century people shopped and socialized locally because, well, there really were no other options. Britannia Bay (part of what is now western Ottawa), was considered a summer retreat area because people went there seasonally, for recreation. It was not part of the daily commute of the masses.

Historic street scenes, as shown below in this 1900 photo of Mulberry Street in Little Italy, New York, inevitably show cities teeming with people who had everything they needed within walking distance.


Similar scenes can be observed in modern day European cities where the streetscape came before the automobile, as shown below in Dublin Ireland in 2003.


But, here in North America, this is what we contend with daily. Not a human being to be seen, yet so much activity over such a wide area.




Several years ago, as our community of Overbrook wrestled with yet another public school closure and its conversion into an upscale private school (tuition $10,000+), much of the concern was about the traffic that would be generated. My comment was that I didn't mind visitors to the community, but I wished they didn't feel it necessary to bring two tons of metal with them every time they dropped in to bring their kids to school.

Our cities have become great car dumps. Is it any wonder we are so spread out? We don't have any room left for people.

More than Newspapers are Closing

As the cars whiz by, does anyone notice that the Newstand has closed? (One bare light bulb is left on, but, sadly, no one is home.) Less newspapers being published, less places needed to sell them.

News You Can Lose: The New Yorker

News You Can Lose: Financial Page: The New Yorker

The future of our news media is unfolding. What will be left in a couple of years? As James Surowiecki points out in this New Yorker article, strangely enough, it isn't that people are using print media less, in fact, they are using it more.

The difference is that today they don’t have to pay for it. The real problem for newspapers, in other words, isn’t the Internet; it’s us. We want access to everything, we want it now, and we want it for free. That’s a consumer’s dream, but eventually it’s going to collide with reality: if newspapers’ profits vanish, so will their product.

Dan Gardner at the Citizen Shouts the Warning. Is Anyone Listening?

Don't be fooled by low gas prices -- the crunch is nearly here

Dan Gardner understands that the second economic shoe is going to drop in the not too distant future. Short term economic thinkers (which, sadly, is indicative of the approach of most of us) see falling gas prices as relief. It will prove to be the reverse. Lower prices will inevitably encourage consumption and once again the world will bump up against the limited supply, and the upward price spiral will start again. I certainly hope Dan Gardner is correct when he suggests that the election of Barack Obama is going to make a difference. He may get it, but will he be able to convince enough of his colleagues and the American public that they must begin to think long term on this file if their children are to have a future?

I will only begin to believe we have started to turn the corner on this in public attitude if personal fuel consumption continues to drop even if prices drop. Then we will know that collectively, consumers are paying attention. People need to stop wasting the stuff irrespective of price. Anyone think that will happen? That is my approach, but, I am probably the oddest eccentric on my block. That's what the world needs, more eccentrics! (Of course, then we wouldn't be deemed eccentric if we were the majority, now would we?.)

Facebook second thoughts.

Watching this video does present Facebook in a very creepy light. However, I also have this image of myself as the marketer's worst nightmare. I am very low on the consumer totem pole. I go out of my way to find alternatives to making purchases. Whenever I purchase a "durable" good, I expect it to be ultimately durable, ie it will be the last time I purchase such an item. I would be curious to know what these so called "data miners" would make of my profile. Somehow, I expect that they would wish they had been digging a hole somewhere else.

IEA begins to accept the reality of Peak Oil

Global oil supply will peak in 2020, says IEA

With investment collapsing in the oil patch, the International Energy Agency (IEA) is now predicting that conventional crude output could plateau by 2020.

As much as the discussion of peak oil has now penetrated into the mainstream media in recent years, it still seems to have very little traction with the general public.

Prices have collapsed in recent months, so many consumers have been breathing a sigh of relief. The cost of that long commute has been halved since July '08 and fingers are as firmly as ever gripped around the steering wheel. Inevitably, these lower prices will be a part of encouraging increased consumption. Of course, as this ultimately starts to "fuel" the economy to "recovery" increased demand will face the wall of diminishing supply, and the upward price spiral will start again.

For those who are thinking long term, now is the time to be developing a post carbon world, not waiting until there is precious little carbon to burn.

Economics cannot overcome geologic reality. We may already have reached a peak of squeezing, at most, 87 million barrels per day out of our sad planet.

This Shouldn't Be About Who Shouts the Loudest or Has the Biggest Advertising Budget

If Stephen Harper's blustery performance in the House yesterday is any indication, the Conservatives apparently want to boil the Coalition debate down to who can shout the loudest. He once again is showing his true colours. The sign 'I am a Consensus Building Democrat' is not one that would hang easily around Mr. Harper's neck without evoking laughter. It is one thing to hold firm to your beliefs. We all have that right in a democracy. But to bluster and berate as he has sunk to is not impressive.

Making derogatory comments that the coalition partners have made a 'deal with the devil' by aligning themselves with 'separatists', may play well to his core constituency, but whether he likes it or not, these 'separatists' were duly elected by more than 1.3 million Quebecers. Mr. Harper may disagree with their view regarding Quebec's future within Canada, as I do, but tossing insulting hand grenades at whomever you disagree with is not helpful and shows an unseemly amount of disrespect from the Right Honourable Prime Minister of Canada.

Mr. Harper, show some respect for those who disagree with you. I urge you to call off the attack dogs. To those in the coalition, I urge you to not sink to Mr. Harper's level.

It's Too Bad...

That so many of the participants in this current Canadian political dilemma see it in an "us versus them" perspective.

We all are in this together. We all want the same thing. We want a safe and secure place to raise a family. We need to know that our parents are well looked after, and that our children are safe when they go to the park. That is what we all want.

We need to know that not only our family, but our friends and neighbours are properly fed and have adequate housing, and access to a good education.

We have so much to learn about sharing power, and listening to those who do not agree with us. Let's work on getting wth that program.

Responding to the Critics of the Coalition

I find it is interesting to listen to the unfolding debate regarding the current Canadian political situation. There is virtual universal condemnation of the heavy handed politically motivated "economic update statement" made by the the Conservatives last Thursday. There has been serious questioning of the judgment of Stephen Harper. Randall Denley of the Ottawa Citizen deemed it "one of the dumbest stunts in the history of Canadian politics". It is hard to imagine that if Harper had the power to wind the clock back a week that he wouldn't want to tweek that "economic update statement" just a bit. Looks like it is too late to put that genie back in the bottle. (Or, Jack back in the box.)

Now, however, there is serious criticism being leveled at those of the Liberals, New Democrats and the Bloq who have negotiated the terms of a proposed coalition government. Much of it, I don't necessarily disagree with. John Geiger, The Globe & Mail editorial board editor views Stephane Dion as

...a guy who could not control his own party, pretending that he can now control a government populated with his former political enemies in the NDP, propped up by separatists — the very people that Mr. Dion entered public life to defeat. Now he's going to give them legitimacy, he's going to also give them more power in Ottawa than they have ever enjoyed. More smart, yes. But this isn't smart. This is dumb.

He further opines that:

...if Mr. Dion becomes prime minister, he's only going to be there for a few months. And to accomplish that, he has had to enter a pact with union-beholden social democrats and separatists. Mr. Dion lacks the moral authority to form a government.

He characterizes the proposed coalition as

...inherently unstable. These three leaders have been at each others throats throughout their political lives. They have no common policies, only a common interest in attaining power through the back door. No matter what their agreement states, it seems highly doubtful that a Prime Minister Dion could keep this together for long, nor is there much hope that Mr. Dion could deliver the kind of leadership required during such uncertain times. That's the point: it's time for leadership in Ottawa, and since the incumbent prime minister and opposition leader are incapable of providing it, we need look elsewhere.

It is this final sentence that leads to the recommendation of the G&M that Harper resign. And the chances of that happening? I can see the headline now;

Harper Resigns! Leaderless Conservatives Beg Canadian Public For Time!

It is true that the Coalition proposes to install a lame duck leader as Prime Minister responsible for governing what may be a rickety coalition. Some have characterized it as akin to "herding cats." But, whether we like it or not, they represent a majority of the Members of Parliament that we elected less than two months ago. It is unfortunate for Stephen Harper and his supporters (which numbered just under 38% of the electorate in our recent election) that he is apparently about to lose the confidence of the House. He, and the rest of us will now have to deal with the consequences of his ill thought out "economic update statement" of last Thursday.

Ultimately, while we can argue ad nauseam about the viability of the proposed coalition and whether or not it would be the correct path for the country, there is no disputing the right of those making the proposal to do so under our current parliamentary system. If it goes ahead it will be a very difficult process. My hope is that if it does proceed, that those involved will truly start to behave like consensus builders who seek to find what unites us rather than hyper partisan politicians whose primary goal is to find what issues divide us so that they can exploit it for there own political gain.

The only alternative to the coalition proposal is more of the same from Stephen Harper and the Conservatives. Does anyone honestly believe that they will ever evolve into a group that truly understands that for a minority parliament to work, it requires compromise and communication with your opposition? Can anyone foresee a time when they would would be able to regain the trust of the current opposition? I think this is why people such as Bob Rae are saying "There is no going back." The trust was broken, and the opposition is now intent on changing the face of parliament. Call it a power grab, call it partisan politics, isn't that the game the Conservatives have been playing all along? The real question is, will anything change if this new group comes to power? That will be the real test.

Reflecting the Will of the People

To suggest that only having a Conservative government in power somehow reflects the 'will of the people', as Stephen Harper would have us believe, is quite a stretch. The Conservatives, with support of less than 38% of those who chose to vote, were, as a result of the traditions of our parliamentary democracy, rightfully given the first opportunity to form a government. Such a government however, only remains in place so long as it has the confidence of the House.

When Stephen Harper points out that "Canadians didn't elect Stephane Dion to be Prime Minister of Canada", he is correct. However, Canadians didn't elect Stephen Harper either. We don't have a Presidential system in this country. We don't elect the Prime Minister, we elect Members of Parliament who in turn choose the leader of the country. Apparently, a majority of our MPs are choosing Stephane Dion.

Stephen Harper and the Conservatives are treading on very dangerous ground when they try to whip up sentiment that the proposed coalition is "an affront to the democratic will of Canadians". They may not like it, but they need to understand that this is how parliamentary democracy works. If this coalition does become the government, it will be far more reflective of the "will of the people" than the less than 38% of the electorate that the Conservatives represent.

Greg Sorbara Says It Well

An historic opportunity to put Canada ahead of partisanship

Here is an excerpt of Greg Sorbara's comments directed at the federal Liberals.

For the federal Liberal caucus members, they must come together and create something larger than each, something larger than three very talented colleagues among them – Michael Ignatieff, Dominic LeBlanc, and Bob Rae – who must set aside personal goals in the short run and assume a shared responsibility at this critical moment in concert with Mr. Dion. These four are thoughtful Canadians very capable of a sense of doing the right thing that we need so desperately at this moment.

The Liberal caucus must choose both a process and outcome worthy of the short term moment at hand, with concurrent concern for its future, and the nation's, in mind. They must opt for stability, integrity, humility and respected and respectful collective leadership.

Regarding a more permanent expression of leadership, my Federal cousins need to construct a process and plan, along with a historically composed Cabinet that must serve our nervous nation with calm and strategic intellect. Over the next number of months, their work must be free of distractions of a personal and political nature if a promising accord of fiscally prudent and progressive decisions are to be made and set in motion.

Another reasoned voiced from "the others". Yes, if all involved in contemplating the removal of Stephen Harper and the Conservatives from office can heed the call to rise above partisanship and walk the talk of true leadership, this could work. The big fear is that no sooner will they form the government, but that the silly name calling and quest for power driven infighting will begin yet again. I can only hope that the likes of Jack Layton, Michael Ignatieff, Bob Rae, Stephane Dion and others who may be at the helm of this collaborative effort are really listening to what people like Greg Sorbara are saying. The last election result did provide them with the legitimacy to act as a coalition. Behaving as a coalition, however, requires quite a different skill set from behaving as a majority government. It requires ongoing compromise within as well as with those on the opposing bench.

Can those Liberals questing for power within the Party (are you listening Bob, Iggy and Dominic?) put asside their aspiration and understand that there are larger issues at stake? Can they park their egos somewhere?