Global oil supply will peak in 2020, says IEA
With investment collapsing in the oil patch, the International Energy Agency (IEA) is now predicting that conventional crude output could plateau by 2020.
As much as the discussion of peak oil has now penetrated into the mainstream media in recent years, it still seems to have very little traction with the general public.
Prices have collapsed in recent months, so many consumers have been breathing a sigh of relief. The cost of that long commute has been halved since July '08 and fingers are as firmly as ever gripped around the steering wheel. Inevitably, these lower prices will be a part of encouraging increased consumption. Of course, as this ultimately starts to "fuel" the economy to "recovery" increased demand will face the wall of diminishing supply, and the upward price spiral will start again.
For those who are thinking long term, now is the time to be developing a post carbon world, not waiting until there is precious little carbon to burn.
Economics cannot overcome geologic reality. We may already have reached a peak of squeezing, at most, 87 million barrels per day out of our sad planet.